At 25/1 to win their division, last in the list of the eight teams taking part, Paddy Power has clearly taken the view that the Limerick footballers are in for a tough campaign in this year’s National Football League. The presence of Armagh (8/11 favs) in the division means that big prices are available about the other seven counties, though a few Limerick supporters will raise their eyebrows a little at the sight of Tipperary (11/2) and Clare (13/2) so high up in the list when the Treaty county are perceived as being at the back of the pack.
Undoubtedly John Brudair’s men had a poor season in 2014 and the loss of key men like Ger Collins, John Galvin and Ian Ryan for a variety of reasons would be a tough blow for any county to take. However one desperately poor outing against UCC is hardly sufficient cause to write them off, certainly not in a division where – Armagh excepted – there are so many huge question marks over each of the participants.
Clare will be making a step up to a higher division and regardless of what’s happening in the county, they haven’t got recent experience of playing competitive games week in and week out, while Tipperary are heavily dependent on a few young footballers who will also be managing college and underage commitments over the next few weeks.
Fermanagh manager Pete McGrath has had to jettison several of his better club performers due to a widespread unwillingness to subscribe to an intercounty lifestyle; Louth have lost their talisman and best player in Paddy Keenan, while in Wexford the impetus has definitely moved back toward the small ball game. Though at 14/1, the Model County could be worth a second look.
This weekend Limerick are 5/4 with Powers to win their battle with Sligo at Newcastlewest and while 25/1 about them winning the league outright is probably a bit generous, 5/4 looks close enough to the mark. Sligo are likely to slip back a little bit after losing Pat Flanagan as manager to his native Offaly, but they still have a decent array of competitive forwards and rarely go down easily at this time of year.
Elsewhere in the division, Armagh look like a penalty kick at 3/10 at home to Tipp – whatever about losing away, they’re highly unlikely to drop points at home – while Wexford could be a decent shout at 13/8 away to Clare, even allowing for their very poor form in the O’Byrne Cup. Finally Fermanagh are 2/5 shots for their Saturday night lights meeting with Louth at Brewster Park and while it’s impossible to overstate the value of Keenan to the Wee County, they were still a competitive division two county in 2014 who picked off a good win over Westmeath in the championship. They may have lost heavily to Kildare and Tyrone, but there is a world between counties like that and Fermanagh right now. 5/2 Louth must surely be the bet of the week.
by Kevin Egan of Paddy Power
