THE IRISH Wire Sponsored County Senior Football final will take place this Sunday 21 at 3.30pm in the Gaelic Grounds. Dromcollogher/Broadford will take on Newcastlewest in the showpiece in what is expected to be another close affair.
These two sides have met already this season, Newcastlewest winning the group stage game 1-10 to 0-8. Both sides finished level on points in the table, with Newcastlewest going straight into the semi finals on the back of that win.
The two teams have also met in the final before. The 2004 final needed a replay to separate the teams, Dromcollogher/Broadford securing the title on that occasion.
On Sunday 21, Newcastlewest will be looking to make up for last season’s heartbreak. The black and whites lost to Monaleen last time out. The West division side have not lifted the county title trophy since 1992, at the time, their second crown.
Drom/Broadford on the other hand are looking to make it six titles in 11 years. Having won titles in 2001, 2003, 2004, 2008 and 2009, the famous club is priced with some bookies as 4/6 favourites for this weekend.
Drom/Broadford will be relying on the scoring power of Derry McCarthy, Micheál Reidy and Ray Lynch, while Newcastlewest will be looking to Limerick stars Stephen Kelly, James Kelly and Thomas Quilligan. A classic encounter is in store for headquarters. Some members of the public wished for the game to be moved to a west venue, but it became clear this week, that both clubs participating are happy for the game to go ahead at the Ennis Road venue.
The winners of this weekend’s tie will represent Limerick against the champions of Cork, Carbery Rangers or Castlehaven on November 4 at a Cork venue.
The curtain raiser to this weekend’s county final is the final of the Senior Football League between Fr Casey’s and Galbally. (throw in at 1.45pm) That game is being refereed by Trevor Mann, while the County Championship final will be officiated by Richard Moloney.
Betting Tips with Kevin Egan of Paddypower.com
As a club from a large town in the middle of Limerick’s footballing heartlands, Newcastlewest’s record of two SFC titles is something of an anomaly. They should be a lot more successful, yet they’ve struggled to field competitive teams for long stretches of their history and in recent years they’ve found ways to fall short despite having a competitive group of players. This Sunday’s contest in the Gaelic Grounds is a chance to improve their record with a third title, however the odds indicate that they have a lot of work to do against Drom-Broadford.
Paddy Power bookmakers are offering 4/6 about a win for Drom-Broadford, 7/1 about a draw and 6/4 about a win for the town club, while it’s 10/11 Drom-Broadford and 11/10 Newcastlewest on the handicap betting market, where the favourites have to win by more than a point. If we go by the bare results that the two teams have secured this year, those odds seem very kind to the underdogs, but as we all know, county finals are about a lot more than bare form.
Certainly if Newcastlewest were to choose their opponents for this final and they had to pick from the strong clubs in the county, it’s reasonable to assume that they would have considered having a crack at Sunday’s opponents. The last three championship meetings between the two clubs have gone the way of Newcastlewest and while there were different circumstances at play in each of those games, there certainly should be no fear factor involved.
On the other side of the coin, Drom-Broadford are proven performers at this stage of the competition. This will be their eighth county final since 2000 and after losing the millennium final to Fr Caseys, they’ve since gone on to win five of their next six deciders, including a replay victory over Newcastlewest in 2004. That’s an impressive record and one that we don’t oppose lightly.
Both sides are likely to put a lot of effort into shutting down key players on their opponents’ side, with the influence of Stephen Kelly likely to be a real concern for Mike Fahy and his team of selectors. That should restrict the scoring rate and in any low scoring game, a narrow final margin is probably. Paddy Powers are laying 23/10 about a win for Drom-Broadford by 1-3 points inclusive and while that’s a short price for a winning margin bet, it’s a justifiable punt when we look at the defensive records of the two teams involved. Both teams are conceding just over ten points per game, and while some of those games were against poorer opposition, it still points to a strong emphasis on defensive play. On that basis, a small stake at 23/10 could be the most profitable way to trade Sunday’s final,
Those looking for a larger stakes bet might take a second look at the first goalscorer betting, but neither of these teams have any one player that tends to be a source of most of their goals. As such the best play here could be Powers’ 4/1 about no goalscorer at all. Ray Lynch has been lively for Drom-Broadford and he might be a consideration if Powers go any price of 8/1 or bigger about the corner forward raising a green flag, but overall the 23/10 winning margin bet remains our best recommendation of the week.
