It’s incredible to think that with one round of games to go in the group stages of the Limerick Senior hurling championship, all 16 teams are still in contention for a place in the knockout stages, while only Emmets are guaranteed to be playing in a quarter final regardless of results this weekend. That’s a huge boost for the county board who are hoping for big attendances this week and it’s also a big advantage to both the bookmakers and the betting public, who can be sure that everything is above board and kosher and that every team will be trying their hardest.
All too often round robin games have to be watched very carefully since one side or another has little or no motivation to do well.
Paddy Powers have released their odds to the Limerick Post and our main recommendation is a treble on three strong favourites. We’ll start with the easy one – Kilmallock to beat Ahane at 1/5. Ahane were a surprise package last year but they seem to have slipped back into the pack in 2012, while Kilmallock have been the form team by some distance. Theoretically Kilmallock aren’t quite safe yet but a scoring difference of +31 still puts them in a great position. However they still should be quite motivated since the winners of the group will play the group 4 runners up who would be on paper the weakest side in the least eight, while if Kilmallock got nabbed by Ahane on Saturday evening, they could have to face Na Piarsaigh. Expect them to come through easily, to be joined in the knockout stages by Murroe Boher, who Powers make out to be a 2/7 shot to beat a very weak Knockainey team. 1/7 would be nearer the mark here, so they get included too.
The final leg of our treble is the biggest price of the lot, Doon at 4/7 to beat Effin. The wheels have come off for Effin in recent weeks, while Doon bounced back from a terrible first round performance with a good draw against Patrickswell and they now sit on top of division 1B of the league. Neither of these sides look like they’re destined for bigger things this year but for now, Doon round off a treble that pays roughly 7/5.
However for those looking for a big price, we’re going to conclude our recommendations with one for the conspiracy theorists out there. It’s 11/1 that Patrickswell and Garryspillane play out a draw in the same group and while we would never suggest that these two teams would collude among themselves, human nature is always a factor. If the game is close coming into the last few minutes, neither side is going to take a risk chasing a win when a draw would put them through anyway. Patrickswell are clearly the better side and Powers’ odds of 3/10 reflect that, but if one team is ahead by a point and defending frantically in the last few minutes, they’ll know that they can’t afford to concede a goal. In that situation, a foul or the concession of a free shot for a point is the safe option. We’re not saying that it’ll definitely happen, but at 11/1, it would be foolish not to have a small bet, just in case.
