An old joke says that economists have predicted eight out of the last three recessions. Many readers of the Limerick Post would undoubtedly argue the same about this particular “sporting economist” after the expected double dip recession for Limerick on the GAA field failed to materialise last weekend. Both the Limerick footballers and hurlers produced excellent performances to prolong their involvement in the summer championships and after drawing Kilkenny and Kildare respectively,
they’ll certainly need to step things up another level again if they are to keep playing on into August.
This weekend Portlaoise has been set as the venue for Saturday’s third round qualifier tie between Kildare and Limerick and while the venue is hardly that big an issue, Portlaoise is very much a home from home for Kildare, who play a lot of games in O’Moore Park. This year Kieran McGeeney’s team have already had one successful outing at the venue when they put Offaly to the sword in the Leinster quarter final, while their result last weekend at Breffni Park suggests that they have definitely got the Meath defeat out of their system.
If we take one game away from each team – Kildare’s defeat to Meath, and Limerick’s win over Longford – the form lines for the two counties in 2012 make for bleak reading from a Limerick perspective. So the question we have to answer is whether or not those two games were simply freak results, or else if they were indicative of the true level of the counties involved.
The fact that Limerick were brought to extra time and still prevailed suggests that their win was a genuine one and worthy of taking seriously. Kildare, on the other hand, are probably still the real deal and their Meath result might be just a bad day at the office. Paddy Powers are giving Limerick some chance and they’ve posted up match prices of 1/5 Kildare, 9/2 Limerick and 9/1 draw, while the handicap betting sees both sides priced at even money with Limerick getting a five point start.
Sadly, again, a bet on Limerick at this level doesn’t really add up. Generally speaking this year, good teams are beating middle-ranking teams by decent margins. Cork, Kerry, Dublin, Kildare, Tyrone, Mayo and Donegal have a combined record of 9-6 against the spread this summer. If we leave out Kerry, who are clearly off form, that record becomes 9-4. The smart money this year is on the favourite covering the handicap and bearing in mind that this is a game between sides who will be playing in the top and bottom leagues next year, five points is a small spread.
So again, we’re forced to look elsewhere for a bet and we’ll go with Leitrim plus four points against Laois at Carrick-on-Shannon. They’ll have a packed house at Páirc Seán and it’s quite possible that Laois beating Monaghan isn’t the great result that some people suggest. After all Offaly hammered Monaghan in the qualifiers last year before losing to Limerick at the Gaelic Grounds. Laois might come through but it won’t be easy, and Powers’ offer of 11/10 plus four looks very attractive.
