It will be a source of immense disappointment to most Limerick hurling supporters that they start this Sunday’s Munster hurling championship fixture against Tipperary as 9/2 outsiders. It’s not as if Paddy Power bookmakers, or anyone else for that matter, should be immensely impressed by Tipperary’s form so far this year. Indeed many would argue that in their current state of turmoil, Tipperary are ripe for an ambush.
However Limerick have failed to make any impression of their own during the National Hurling League and so they will start at that price with Powers, while they will also receive a five point head start on the handicap betting market.
Without question, Tipp under Declan Ryan are a long way off where they need to be to be thinking about unseating the Cats and taking back the All Ireland title that was theirs up until last September. Their forward line has been unsettled all Spring and while Lar Corbett’s return is undoubtedly good news to hurling followers from anywhere in between Carrick and Toomevara, the former Hurler of the Year will need some time to get back up to the pace of the intercounty game. If he is to rediscover his 2011 form, his time to shine will be August and September, not this Sunday afternoon in Thurles. Seamus Callinan, Shane McGrath, Patrick Maher and Eoin Kelly are others who haven’t spent much time hurling in the Tipp colours this Spring and while players like Pa Bourke and Brian O’Meara are capable replacements, it would be foolish to presume that Tipp will be anything like as good as they were in the 2011 Munster championship.
However on the Limerick side, Seamus Hickey’s injury robs John Allen of a vital piece of his defensive puzzle, so it’s hard to trust the underdogs in this fixture. This column’s view is that Limerick will burst out of the blocks, but that they may struggle to maintain that momentum in the second half. Normally saying that a team would be competitive would consequently imply that they should stay within the handicap, but the scoring in modern hurling is so high that a team can play well and still lose by two goals.
So, our recommendation is Limerick to lead at half time, which should be around a 10/3 or 7/2 shot, or Limerick HT/Tipperary FT double result, which will probably trade at about 11/2 or so with Powers. While we’d love to recommend a happier ending here, sadly the evidence backing it up hasn’t been there in the league, and the absence of a certain Murroe-Boher defender only discourages us further.
For those looking at a first goalscorer bet, Tipp can be vulnerable to pace from the right wing and they have conceded more goals from the right wing this year than from the centre or left combined. As a result, look for a player like Graeme Mulcahy or Shane Dowling, if they get handed either the 13 or the 10 jersey. This is the optimum channel to attack Tipperary and while it seems strange to go after an All Star defender like Michael Cahill, so far that has been the way to get at the Premier County.
